Happy Opening Day

Hey seamheads:  Happy Opening Day!  The happiest day of the year.  And in conjunction with this joyous day comes my annual season preview, where I can make an ass of myself with my bold guesses.  Without further ado…

Division predictions

AL West:  Texas Rangers.  Bias?  Probably.  Correct?  Probably.  The Rangers maintained their 2-time defending AL Champ ball club and arguably upgraded, adding proven closer Joe Nathan and log-jamming their already stacked starting rotation with eight legit options, highlighted by the move of Neftali Feliz to the rotation and replacing C.J. Wilson with Yu Darvish.  Wilson, an ace, is a loss that is multiplied by his move to the Angels, but the ceiling on Darvish is much higher.  The Angels have too much pride to stay down for long, and the addition of Albert Pujols is insane, but likely not enough to stay with the balanced Rangers for the entire season.  The Mariners and A’s are both in transition fazes, moving from more pitching-heavy to more offense.  Cepeda should be a nice bat for the A’s and Jesus Montero for the Mariners, likewise.  Things could go either way between these two bottom-feeders.

AL Central:  Cleveland Indians.  Ubaldo Jimenez should bounce back this season after a turbulent 2011.  I like the young base of talent that is growing in Ohio and think another key mid-season acquisition could push this team over the hump.  The Tigers should finish second, but not by much, anticipating a close race.  They made a splash by responding to the loss of Victor Martinez with Prince Fielder, and the pitching is clearly solid with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Doug Fister, and a very serviceable bullpen.  I just think fate is with the Indians.  The White Sox bet the farm last year and will have to pay the price now.  The Royals are perpetual losers.  And I just don’t know what to expect out of the Twins.  They have the talent to be good, but it seems like they are a stagnant club, making no significant moves while Detroit and Cleveland continue to rise.

AL East:  New York Yankees.  I love the addition of Jose Pineda.  Montero would have been a nice bat, but not necessary.  They shed some dead weight by parting with A.J. Burnett and continue to have one of the most formidable offenses in baseball.  The bullpen is solid one more year with Mariano Rivera closing, but the loss of Joba Chamberlain means a mid-season acquisition is necessary to compete in the playoffs.  The Tampa Bay Rays should finish second with roughly the same team as last year that made a remarkable run and a new ace in Matt Moore.  The Boston Red Sox need a complete overhaul that will take years, not just some managerial changes.  Plus they just lost their closer, Andrew Bailey for half the year.  I could see Toronto finishing third, but Boston still has the better talent.  Plus I see Jose Bautista finally getting nabbed for PEDs.  The Baltimore Orioles have a decent base of talent, but are not in the same league as the other four.

NL West:  San Francisco Giants.  This is one of the more intriguing divisions.  Ultimately, I think it comes down to the Giants-Arizona D’backs rivalry that bloomed last year.  I give the edge to the Giants because they have a lot of experience at young ages on their pitching staff.  Both Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain can throw with security knowing the team is behind them financially.  Throw in Madison Bumgarner and I’d take those top three against anyone else’s in the majors.  Both Brian Wilson and Buster Posey will return from injury.  Pablo Sandoval finally emerged last season.  This is a blue-collar club with a lot of talent and personality.  The Diamondbacks could be legit favorites after the strides they made last year, losing to the Brewers in the Division Series that could have gone either way, perhaps the most exciting series of the playoffs.  The addition of Trevor Cahill to a solid rotation headed by Ian Kennedy plays nicely off of San Fran.  And the offense really gelled behind Justin Upton.  But I also might take the Dodgers.  Awesome club spearheaded by Cy Young-winner Clayton Kershaw and near-MVP Matt Kemp.  The players wrongly were out of contention late due to some key injuries and front office turmoil.  Now that the Magic Johnson-group has control, look for this group to rally with a strong campaign, vying for a division crown.  The San Diego Padres are back in rebuilding mode, but they always play hard.  The Colorado Rockies are in for a rocky season.  They need to find their clear-cut ace now the Ubaldo has been dealt.  This is Troy Tulowitzki’s team on the financial statement, but the aging Todd Helton is the heart, creating confusion to their identity.  Plus the jury is still out on if Carlos Gonzalez is for real.

NL Central:  Cincinnati Reds.  They stepped out a couple years ago and faded last season, but they locked up Joey Votto for 10 years, dumped the ridiculous-looking Edison Volquez, replaced him with new ace Matt Latos, and solidified the ‘pen with Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall.  The rest of the lineup is also fearful and the club is hell-bent to win now.  Then, how do you not pick the St. Louis Cardinals after they won the World Series without their ace, now that Adam Wainwright is back?  They still lost the top player in baseball in Pujols, one of the top managers in Tony LaRussa, and it looks like Chris Carpenter may be done with a shoulder injury.  The Cardinals are always resilient, though.  They locked-up Yadier Molina, David Freese emerged and replaced Pujols as much as possible with Carlos Beltran.  The Milwaukee Brewers should have been the favorites, but the loss of Prince Fielder and the roller coaster of an off-season produced by the Ryan Braun appeal will be too much to overcome.  The rotation isn’t strong enough.  Expect a hard charge out of the gate and subsequent free fall.  I like the Cubs to play with some renewed pride, but don’t be surprised to see the Pirates pushing the top clubs here; they could play some inspired ball.  The Houston Astros suck.

NL East:  Philadelphia Phillies.  It’s pretty much the same team that dominated the regular season last year.  They lose Roy Oswalt, but his performance last season is eminently replaceable.  It will take awhile for Ryan Howard to get back on track after his ankle injury, but the second half of the season should be strong.  The Washington Nationals are my next pick – kind of a sheik one.  They’ve spent a lot of money very quickly and have young talent in Stephen Strausburg and Bryce Harper coming up.  They added Gio Gonzelez, Edwin Jackson and Brad Lidge to bolster the pitching; however, I wonder if the Nats clutched at straws to put together a winner.  They may have spread themselves too thin financially on players are really are not top-flight guys, but second-level contributors.  When this experiment falls apart – and it will – look for more hasty moves next off-season to try to dump some payroll.  The Miami Marlins are this year’s White Sox.  Same manager, different team.  Bringing on a bunch of Ozzie Guillen-guys in Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes and Carlos Zambrano further highlights the all-in approach.  Emotions will be high; so the winning will be passionate, and the losing will breed panic mode.  The Atlanta Braves should be next.  They keep falling despite having some talent there.  The Mets need a new direction, again.

Playoff predictions

AL wildcard:  Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

AL champ:  Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  It’s very hard to win in the playoffs no matter how good you are.  The Rangers are the best team in this league, but the odds say they lose this time.  If the Tigers can sedate the Indians, don’t be surprised to see them make another hard charge here.

NL wildcard:  Arizona Diamondbacks.

NL champ:  Philadelphia Phillies.  They have the best roster, but they haven’t put it all together since 2008.  I like them to finally beat the odds and win in the playoffs like they should.

World Series winner:  Philadelphia Phillies.  It will be a star-studded World Series.  Big markets, dual coasts.  Huge first basemen, killer pitching.  It’ll be fun.

Award winners

AL MVP:  Robinson Cano.  This one has been brewing for some time now.  The kid is a man, tearing people new assholes year-after-year.  Murder’s Row is now built around him – using perennial All-Stars like Jeter, A-Rod and Teixeira!  Josh Hamilton could bounce back to 2010 form, using his off-season episode as a focus point again (if he could only stay healthy).  Prince Fielder will likely outshine Miguel Cabrera, splitting votes.  Albert Pujols will have a ton of pressure heaped onto him.  And Jose Bautista will be suspended for 50 games.

AL Cy Young:  Jered Weaver.  He was ridiculously good last year.  I keep thinking his arm will fall off the way he throws, but he keeps getting better.  Felix Hernandez could make another run after a disappointing 2011.  On the Rangers, Yu Darvish should turn some heads since batters will still be trying to figure him out when the second half starts.  And I’m excited looking at Derek Holland to make another step towards greatness.  If Justin Verlander continues his epic domination (which he could), that could be the hump for the Tigers in the Central.  CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and David Price are all perennial contenders, as well.

AL Manager:  Manny Acta.  It’s gotta be.  To push the Little Engine That Could over the Tigers.  Oh yeah.  Then there’s respect guys like Mike Sciosia, Jim Leyland and Joe Girardi.  Ron Washington has now entered that arena, but has so much to play with that he won’t get much credit.  Unlikely, but if this thing works out in Boston, Bobby Valentine will get double-credit.

AL Executive:  Jerry Dipoto.  If the Angels make the playoffs, everyone will point to that Pujols-Wilson introduction moment that served as a rallying point to return to the top, especially when it’s his first year on the job.  But Jon Daniels countered well in Texas, Dave Dombrowski reacted smoothly to the loss of V-Mart with Fielder, and Brian Cashman made a subtle yet intelligent move in swapping Montero for Pineda.  (If things ever work out for the A’s with this bunch down the road, Billy Beane should get a retroactive award.)  This year’s award will be handed to guy who best addresses mid-season needs.

NL MVP:  Justin Upton.  The guy is turning into a beast.  He had a breakout season last year and is poised for another waterfall of mashing.  Plus, things are extremely positive in Arizona from the get-go.  Matt Kemp might have won it last year if the rest of the Dodgers didn’t fade in the second half.  I want to see consistency out of Tulowitzki.  Joey Votto is another monster to watch, especially now that Prince and Pujols are out of the league.  Ryan Braun will have too much scrutiny on him to even get votes, and he’ll have the pressure of now being Milwaukee’s lone basher.

NL Cy Young:  Josh Johnson.  I don’t see any one team running away with the NL this year, so it’s an open field for the top players on any team.  J.J. is a levelheaded bloke that should remain unaffected by the Ozzie & Co. hoopla.  Plus he may be the most talented hurler in the league.  Just gotta stay healthy.  Wainwright is back, but it should take some time to get up to full strength after a season-long arm injury.  Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are all good enough to do it.  I’m not convinced Ian Kennedy can repeat his 2011 performance now that folks are aware of him.  I’ve seen Kershaw developing for some time now, so last year didn’t surprise me.

NL Manager:  Don Mattingly.  He was handed a tough situation last year.  This year he is free to succeed, unencumbered.  The Dodgers should be right there at the end of the season and voters like new candidates in this category.  If Miami wins, Ozzie will get the credit.  If Philly wins, Charlie Manuel won’t.  Davey Johnson will have to win the West get credit for the Nationals’ big payroll.  Finally, Dusty Baker may make a run with the Reds that impresses enough.

NL Executive:  Walt Jocketty.  He made a string of calculated moves that really took advantage of an opening in the Central.  He set up the Reds to win now without sacrificing the future.  Larry Beinfest would be the main protagonist if Miami wins its bet.  I could see John Mozeliak winning here if he makes the right moves for the Cardinals mid-season.

Just for fun

I usually have a string of weird things that could happen over the course of the year, but I’m pressed for time, so I’ll give you one good story:

Manny Ramirez completes his suspension, plays outfield for the A’s, tries to go to the bathroom in the 3^rd inning his first game back.  He can’t find a door, so he lets it fly on the leftfield wall.  After a fine and one-week suspension, the A’s trade him across the Bay to the Giants, where he begins training on the side with Barry Bonds.  On a steroids-induced rage, Manny takes to randomly defending his newfound friend by ranting against the Giants for not having a Barry Bonds bobblehead anymore.  During a nationally-televised, pivotal late-season matchup with the Dodgers in L.A., Manny take out his frustrations by mooning the Dodger fans.  While pulling his pants back up, he trips on a sprinkler head, tearing up his knee.  The Giants don’t have to suspend him due to the injury, so he spends the rest of the season on the bench.  On the last day of the season, The Giants have the division won, but the Dodgers need to win to force a one-game playoff with the D’backs for the Wild Card.  The Giants again are playing at Dodger Stadium.  With the score 1-1 in the top of the ninth and a man on third, Clayton Kershaw is going for the complete game.  Manny heckles the left-handed Kershaw from the bench with a live bobblehead impression.  Having had enough of Manny, Kershaw balks by throwing at Manny on the bench from the mound.  The Giant on third walks in to take the lead and Brian Wilson closes the game to end the Dodgers’ season.  He may be a lunatic, but Manny knows how to win.

2011 Baseball Season Revealed

Even though the season has commenced, 162-games leaves a lot to be determined despite Opening Weekend. With that in mind, here is how I see the 2011 season shaking out:

What we learned from Opening Weekend — Nothing. The Yankees, Rangers, Reds, Orioles, Royals, and Phillies all looked strong. But with players on the DL to open the season, mid-season acquisitions/call-ups yet to commence, and new players yet to get acclimated to their new environment, anything can happen from now until September.

Best starting rotation — Philadelphia Phillies. Nos. 1 – 4 are golden: Halladay, Cliff Lee, Oswalt and Hamels are all No. 1 All-Star-type pitchers. And the No. 5, Blanton, is workhorse guy in the prime of his career. However, can all five stay healthy? Will nobody have a down year? Will the depleted batting order come through? Will the bullpen hold up? Can they overcome everybody’s best shot? It’s going to be tough, but they’ve said all the right things so far.

Best bullpen — Hard to tell right now. Bullpens tend to shape up around mid-season. The Padres will be unseated. The Rangers and Yankees had a strong ’pen last year and upgraded with All-Star Rhodes. The Yankees upgraded from Kerry Wood to Rafael Soriano at set-up. The Red Sox made the ’pen a priority among several other things. But if pressed, I like the young San Francisco Giants barring a long DL stint by closer Brian Wilson. They have the WS experience combined with an entire year of being tested by the stingy offense.

Best lineup — This is a two-horse race with the Texas Rangers barely edging the Red Sox. Reigning AL MVP Josh Hamilton anchors a line-up literally devoid of a weak spot. They upgraded at catcher to Torrealba/Napoli. All-Star 2B Kinsler starts the season healthy. The 1B problem is now over with four quality options of Moreland, Davis, Napoli, and Young. The addition of Beltre at 3B gives them the luxury of being able to plug the potential top Ranger of all-time, Michael Young, in anywhere necessary. They have one of the best pinch players in Murphy. And they have Cruz, who is turning into the most powerful slugger in the game. The only possible issue is Borbon in CF, but if he hits like he did in Spring Training, he will make himself an asset. The Red Sox made splashes by adding Adrian Gonzalez and Crawford, but catcher is a question mark, Scutaro is not fabulous, and you just never know if a new player with a shiny new contract will perform as paid.

Most interesting story line — Seeing how Moneyball: Part Deux plays out with the New York Mets. There has been controversy galore coming out of the Mets’ camp all winter-long. New general management starting with Sandy Alderson and DePodesta harkens back the glory days of Billie Beane’s A’s. Ownership is embroiled in legal troubles caught up in the Madoff ponzi scheme. They have a new manager in Terry Collins continuing his mop-up duties of late 2010. The Mets have a lot of money tied up in personel and haven’t made the playoffs since 2006 – bad for a town like New York. Finally, can Carlos Beltran actually contribute? Not a good sign in relinquishing CF.

Best Manager performance — There are a few guys with a chance to shine. 1. Ozzie Guillen: With a lot of money being thrown around Chicago (including additions of OF Dunn and P Edwin Jackson), the White Sox are expected to contend for WS despite a noticeable lack of star pitching and defense. If he can live up to expectations and keep his emotions in check, Ozzie is deserving.

2. Jim Leyland: He and his GM’s jobs are at stake this year while have to compete against the White Sox and Twins. But he has an All-Star pitcher in Verlander leading his staff, a fireballer in the ’pen in Valverde, an MVP candidate in Miguel Cabrera, and a powerful new toy in V-Mart. Could be the perfect storm.

3. Buck Showalter: His Orioles showed a lot of promise in closing out 2010, and he started a mini-war-of-words with Boston. In a division where the four others are all better on paper, and two of them are perennial contenders, this youth group just might respond to the hard-nosed Showalter and be a major surprise in August or later.

4. Mike Quade: The Cubs made some moves to contend but are unlikely to surge ahead of the Brewers or Reds. But the players from 2010 love Quade and the franchise looks determined to turn things around. No one expects that much from Pinella’s successor, but 3B Aramis Ramirez and P Zambrano both need a good year to keep their jobs and the pitching additions of Kerry Wood and Garza give the Cubs a chance to succeed especially since the Cardinals seem to be falling on the DL one-by-one.

5. Fredi Gonzalez: The Braves new skipper succeeds one of the all-time legends in Bobby Cox. The Braves return a playoff team largely intact. If Gonzalez can repeat or better Cox’s 2010 team, he’ll be in the running.

Best AL pitcher — Felix Hernandez. I don’t see any reason why King Felix can’t repeat his Cy Young performance with a modicum of better offense supporting him. The soon-to-be 25-year-old has the best pure stuff in the game and a bulldog mentality. Watch for C.C. Sabathia to put the Yankees on his back this year. Watch for the Oakland’s Trevor Cahill to continue his emergence (2010 was no fluke, he was aces every outing). Watch for either Jon Lester or Clay Bucholtz to shine with little pressure on these top pitchers with a loaded staff in Boston. I like Verlander, but I don’t see him progressing much more. I like David Price, but I think with the reduced payroll squeezing the Rays, the pressure of having to lead the team back to the playoffs will be too much for the 25-year-old.

Best NL pitcher — Cliff Lee. These two words have been the official chant of the playoffs the last two years. He’s bounced around teams, leagues; now he’s healthy, settled and happy with his contract and employer. Nobody is as calm in big situations, and he reminds of Greg Maddux’s pinpoint control. With Lee in his prime and joining a power-packed staff, much like the Red Sox, Lee will be loose every outing and determined to earn every win. Each Phillie starter is well versed in how the ’90s Braves only won one WS in 1995. Watch for Halladay, he’s still the iron horse of modern pitchers. Watch for Josh Johnson, the new Texas-bred fireballer. Watch for Carpenter: if the Cards win the Central it will be because he pitched like a maniac. I like Lincecum, but the WS hangover is looming. I like Grienke, but the expectations on the Brewers might prove too much for his fragile psyche. I like Jiminez, but he ran out of gas in the 2^nd half of 2010 and I think that’s due to batters figuring him out. I like Kershaw, but I think it’s too early.

Best AL batter — Miguel Cabrera. Josh Hamilton was amazing last year, but don’t forget that these two were neck-and-neck for the MVP until Cabrera got hurt and the Tigers faded. There is less need for Hamilton to carry the Rangers this year, and Cabrera is playing for a team desperate to win now. Watch for Adrian Gonzalez; he hammered NL pitching, imagine what he can do against AL pitching. Watch for Robinson Cano to continue his trend toward the best overall five-tool player in baseball. Watch for Ian Kinsler to mirror Cano’s performance (if he can stay healthy). Watch for Nelson Cruz to collect the lion’s share of RBI on the Texas offense. I like Longoria, but he has too much on his shoulders in a tough division. I like Konerko, but his age is a factor. I like Mauer, but I don’t think he has the power to keep up with the rest of the field. I like Teixeira, but he doesn’t hit for a good enough average. I want to go on record and say Morneau might be done after that concussion, A-Rod might not reach the career HR record because he’s off the juice, and Jose Bautista will end up getting suspended for juicing.

Best NL batter — Albert Pujols. He’s been the best hitter in baseball during the course of his career. With the Cards riddled by injuries and Pujols in a contract year, expect Albert to hit to the max of his capacity. And he is virtually injury-free, so don’t hold your breath there. Watch for Ryan Braun to emerge as an elite bat as the Brewers vie for contention. Watch for Buster Posey and Heyward to turn in an amazing sophomore seasons as well. Watch for reigning MVP Votto to play like he wants a fat contract elsewhere. Watch for Howard to try to reach the level of his pitching counterparts. Watch for Car-go to take another step towards elite. I like Fielder, but he’s a bit of a loose cannon. I like Kemp, but it might be too early. I want to go on record and say Werth will stink up the joint.

And now how the standings will shake out —

American League

West — The Rangers have the best offense baseball. Their pitching has too many question marks but enough to sabotage the light-hitting A’s and M’s. Expect the A’s to contend with their amazing pitching rotation and improved offense.

1. Texas Rangers

2. Oakland Athletics

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

4. Seattle Mariners

Central — The White Sox management is determined and there are too many holes in rotations of the Twins and Tigers. I’m not crazy about Buerle, but Danks has emerged and the only other scary pitcher in the division is Verlander.

1. Chicago White Sox

2. Minnesota Twins

3. Detroit Tigers

4. Kansas City Royals

5. Cleveland Indians

East — The Red Sox are loaded from top to bottom. It’s not a matter if it will work, but how many wins this group can rack up. The Yanks’ rotation is porous after Sabathia. While the Jays and Rays are in rebuilding mode, don’t be surprised if the upstart Orioles surprise those two.

1. Boston Red Sox

2. New York Yankees

3. Toronto Blue Jays

4. Tampa Bay Rays

5. Baltimore Orioles

National League

West — The Rockies offense can compete with the Rangers and Red Sox; and they feature a legit ace and closer. The Dodgers have good things going, but it’s still early (even for the manager). And the Giants should compete to repeat, but I foresee a WS hangover combined with another meager offense. (And what if Lincecum gets hurt?)

1. Colorado Rockies

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

3. San Francisco Giants

4. San Diego Padres

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Central — The Reds are for real. They can be good for the next few years, but need to improve their starting pitching to top the Cards consistently. However, injuries hurt the Cards. The Brewers aren’t as complete as the Reds, and the Cubs don’t have a clear enough direction yet.

1. Cincinnati Reds

2. Milwaukee Brewers

3. St. Louis Cardinals

4. Chicago Cubs

5. Houston Astros

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

East — The Phillies have the pitching and experience. I’m not sold on their offense, so don’t count the Braves out. The Mets and Marlins must learn to fall before they can walk. The Nationals are exciting because of their potential but still a year or two away.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

2. Atlanta Braves

3. New York Mets

4. Florida Marlins

5. Washington Nationals

AL Playoffs

Divisional Series

Red Sox over A’s

Rangers over White Sox

Championship Series

Red Sox over Rangers

NL Playoffs

Divisional Series

Reds over Dodgers

Rockies over Phillies

Championship Series

Rockies over Reds

World Series

Red Sox over Rockies