2011 Baseball Season Revealed

Even though the season has commenced, 162-games leaves a lot to be determined despite Opening Weekend. With that in mind, here is how I see the 2011 season shaking out:

What we learned from Opening Weekend — Nothing. The Yankees, Rangers, Reds, Orioles, Royals, and Phillies all looked strong. But with players on the DL to open the season, mid-season acquisitions/call-ups yet to commence, and new players yet to get acclimated to their new environment, anything can happen from now until September.

Best starting rotation — Philadelphia Phillies. Nos. 1 – 4 are golden: Halladay, Cliff Lee, Oswalt and Hamels are all No. 1 All-Star-type pitchers. And the No. 5, Blanton, is workhorse guy in the prime of his career. However, can all five stay healthy? Will nobody have a down year? Will the depleted batting order come through? Will the bullpen hold up? Can they overcome everybody’s best shot? It’s going to be tough, but they’ve said all the right things so far.

Best bullpen — Hard to tell right now. Bullpens tend to shape up around mid-season. The Padres will be unseated. The Rangers and Yankees had a strong ’pen last year and upgraded with All-Star Rhodes. The Yankees upgraded from Kerry Wood to Rafael Soriano at set-up. The Red Sox made the ’pen a priority among several other things. But if pressed, I like the young San Francisco Giants barring a long DL stint by closer Brian Wilson. They have the WS experience combined with an entire year of being tested by the stingy offense.

Best lineup — This is a two-horse race with the Texas Rangers barely edging the Red Sox. Reigning AL MVP Josh Hamilton anchors a line-up literally devoid of a weak spot. They upgraded at catcher to Torrealba/Napoli. All-Star 2B Kinsler starts the season healthy. The 1B problem is now over with four quality options of Moreland, Davis, Napoli, and Young. The addition of Beltre at 3B gives them the luxury of being able to plug the potential top Ranger of all-time, Michael Young, in anywhere necessary. They have one of the best pinch players in Murphy. And they have Cruz, who is turning into the most powerful slugger in the game. The only possible issue is Borbon in CF, but if he hits like he did in Spring Training, he will make himself an asset. The Red Sox made splashes by adding Adrian Gonzalez and Crawford, but catcher is a question mark, Scutaro is not fabulous, and you just never know if a new player with a shiny new contract will perform as paid.

Most interesting story line — Seeing how Moneyball: Part Deux plays out with the New York Mets. There has been controversy galore coming out of the Mets’ camp all winter-long. New general management starting with Sandy Alderson and DePodesta harkens back the glory days of Billie Beane’s A’s. Ownership is embroiled in legal troubles caught up in the Madoff ponzi scheme. They have a new manager in Terry Collins continuing his mop-up duties of late 2010. The Mets have a lot of money tied up in personel and haven’t made the playoffs since 2006 – bad for a town like New York. Finally, can Carlos Beltran actually contribute? Not a good sign in relinquishing CF.

Best Manager performance — There are a few guys with a chance to shine. 1. Ozzie Guillen: With a lot of money being thrown around Chicago (including additions of OF Dunn and P Edwin Jackson), the White Sox are expected to contend for WS despite a noticeable lack of star pitching and defense. If he can live up to expectations and keep his emotions in check, Ozzie is deserving.

2. Jim Leyland: He and his GM’s jobs are at stake this year while have to compete against the White Sox and Twins. But he has an All-Star pitcher in Verlander leading his staff, a fireballer in the ’pen in Valverde, an MVP candidate in Miguel Cabrera, and a powerful new toy in V-Mart. Could be the perfect storm.

3. Buck Showalter: His Orioles showed a lot of promise in closing out 2010, and he started a mini-war-of-words with Boston. In a division where the four others are all better on paper, and two of them are perennial contenders, this youth group just might respond to the hard-nosed Showalter and be a major surprise in August or later.

4. Mike Quade: The Cubs made some moves to contend but are unlikely to surge ahead of the Brewers or Reds. But the players from 2010 love Quade and the franchise looks determined to turn things around. No one expects that much from Pinella’s successor, but 3B Aramis Ramirez and P Zambrano both need a good year to keep their jobs and the pitching additions of Kerry Wood and Garza give the Cubs a chance to succeed especially since the Cardinals seem to be falling on the DL one-by-one.

5. Fredi Gonzalez: The Braves new skipper succeeds one of the all-time legends in Bobby Cox. The Braves return a playoff team largely intact. If Gonzalez can repeat or better Cox’s 2010 team, he’ll be in the running.

Best AL pitcher — Felix Hernandez. I don’t see any reason why King Felix can’t repeat his Cy Young performance with a modicum of better offense supporting him. The soon-to-be 25-year-old has the best pure stuff in the game and a bulldog mentality. Watch for C.C. Sabathia to put the Yankees on his back this year. Watch for the Oakland’s Trevor Cahill to continue his emergence (2010 was no fluke, he was aces every outing). Watch for either Jon Lester or Clay Bucholtz to shine with little pressure on these top pitchers with a loaded staff in Boston. I like Verlander, but I don’t see him progressing much more. I like David Price, but I think with the reduced payroll squeezing the Rays, the pressure of having to lead the team back to the playoffs will be too much for the 25-year-old.

Best NL pitcher — Cliff Lee. These two words have been the official chant of the playoffs the last two years. He’s bounced around teams, leagues; now he’s healthy, settled and happy with his contract and employer. Nobody is as calm in big situations, and he reminds of Greg Maddux’s pinpoint control. With Lee in his prime and joining a power-packed staff, much like the Red Sox, Lee will be loose every outing and determined to earn every win. Each Phillie starter is well versed in how the ’90s Braves only won one WS in 1995. Watch for Halladay, he’s still the iron horse of modern pitchers. Watch for Josh Johnson, the new Texas-bred fireballer. Watch for Carpenter: if the Cards win the Central it will be because he pitched like a maniac. I like Lincecum, but the WS hangover is looming. I like Grienke, but the expectations on the Brewers might prove too much for his fragile psyche. I like Jiminez, but he ran out of gas in the 2^nd half of 2010 and I think that’s due to batters figuring him out. I like Kershaw, but I think it’s too early.

Best AL batter — Miguel Cabrera. Josh Hamilton was amazing last year, but don’t forget that these two were neck-and-neck for the MVP until Cabrera got hurt and the Tigers faded. There is less need for Hamilton to carry the Rangers this year, and Cabrera is playing for a team desperate to win now. Watch for Adrian Gonzalez; he hammered NL pitching, imagine what he can do against AL pitching. Watch for Robinson Cano to continue his trend toward the best overall five-tool player in baseball. Watch for Ian Kinsler to mirror Cano’s performance (if he can stay healthy). Watch for Nelson Cruz to collect the lion’s share of RBI on the Texas offense. I like Longoria, but he has too much on his shoulders in a tough division. I like Konerko, but his age is a factor. I like Mauer, but I don’t think he has the power to keep up with the rest of the field. I like Teixeira, but he doesn’t hit for a good enough average. I want to go on record and say Morneau might be done after that concussion, A-Rod might not reach the career HR record because he’s off the juice, and Jose Bautista will end up getting suspended for juicing.

Best NL batter — Albert Pujols. He’s been the best hitter in baseball during the course of his career. With the Cards riddled by injuries and Pujols in a contract year, expect Albert to hit to the max of his capacity. And he is virtually injury-free, so don’t hold your breath there. Watch for Ryan Braun to emerge as an elite bat as the Brewers vie for contention. Watch for Buster Posey and Heyward to turn in an amazing sophomore seasons as well. Watch for reigning MVP Votto to play like he wants a fat contract elsewhere. Watch for Howard to try to reach the level of his pitching counterparts. Watch for Car-go to take another step towards elite. I like Fielder, but he’s a bit of a loose cannon. I like Kemp, but it might be too early. I want to go on record and say Werth will stink up the joint.

And now how the standings will shake out —

American League

West — The Rangers have the best offense baseball. Their pitching has too many question marks but enough to sabotage the light-hitting A’s and M’s. Expect the A’s to contend with their amazing pitching rotation and improved offense.

1. Texas Rangers

2. Oakland Athletics

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

4. Seattle Mariners

Central — The White Sox management is determined and there are too many holes in rotations of the Twins and Tigers. I’m not crazy about Buerle, but Danks has emerged and the only other scary pitcher in the division is Verlander.

1. Chicago White Sox

2. Minnesota Twins

3. Detroit Tigers

4. Kansas City Royals

5. Cleveland Indians

East — The Red Sox are loaded from top to bottom. It’s not a matter if it will work, but how many wins this group can rack up. The Yanks’ rotation is porous after Sabathia. While the Jays and Rays are in rebuilding mode, don’t be surprised if the upstart Orioles surprise those two.

1. Boston Red Sox

2. New York Yankees

3. Toronto Blue Jays

4. Tampa Bay Rays

5. Baltimore Orioles

National League

West — The Rockies offense can compete with the Rangers and Red Sox; and they feature a legit ace and closer. The Dodgers have good things going, but it’s still early (even for the manager). And the Giants should compete to repeat, but I foresee a WS hangover combined with another meager offense. (And what if Lincecum gets hurt?)

1. Colorado Rockies

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

3. San Francisco Giants

4. San Diego Padres

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Central — The Reds are for real. They can be good for the next few years, but need to improve their starting pitching to top the Cards consistently. However, injuries hurt the Cards. The Brewers aren’t as complete as the Reds, and the Cubs don’t have a clear enough direction yet.

1. Cincinnati Reds

2. Milwaukee Brewers

3. St. Louis Cardinals

4. Chicago Cubs

5. Houston Astros

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

East — The Phillies have the pitching and experience. I’m not sold on their offense, so don’t count the Braves out. The Mets and Marlins must learn to fall before they can walk. The Nationals are exciting because of their potential but still a year or two away.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

2. Atlanta Braves

3. New York Mets

4. Florida Marlins

5. Washington Nationals

AL Playoffs

Divisional Series

Red Sox over A’s

Rangers over White Sox

Championship Series

Red Sox over Rangers

NL Playoffs

Divisional Series

Reds over Dodgers

Rockies over Phillies

Championship Series

Rockies over Reds

World Series

Red Sox over Rockies